Lost confidence

[Minisorella]

Yes, I saw the briefing too. It's too early to know for sure yet though... can be up to 14 days incubation.

 

[in h]

Apparently not, according to Patrick Vallance last... Thursday I think. So far.

If 1500 people congregate in one place, chances are that at least one of them is infected. How many that person infects depends on the situation, but assuming it's on a beach, chances are only 15 of those 1500 will be infected.

A couple of weeks later, maybe half of those 15 are showing symptoms, but probably haven't been tested so don't appear as cases in the statistics.

In the meantime, they have probably each infected four people they live or work with. So in another week or two, that'll be another 60.

If a third of the original 15 and half of the extra 60 went to the pub last night, that's another 45 people sharing their infection. Indoors in a pub, the chances of passing it on are very much higher.

How lucky do you feel?

We should have kept the infection level down by imposing quarantine and lockdown two or three weeks sooner.

By now, the infection levels really would be low enough to ease off a bit. But we didn't do as New Zealand, we just plain screwed up.

 

[SimonM]

My sister’s partner is still in New Zealand and he’s not coming home until he can find a safe route back home that doesn’t involve several stopovers in dodgy countries. He’s only been out there 4 months

 

[Minisorella]

Oh dear, here we go. I distinctly remember when lockdown was first being talked about that the public were incredibly anti any measures like that. The government were bombarded with people saying it would be total overkill for something akin to flu. It took a good couple of weeks of one-at-a-time little steps towards lockdown to get the public used to the idea without causing anarchy. I also wish lockdown had been imposed when the government first wanted it but they took the path of treading gently and building up to it, to get buy-in and cooperation. To be brutally honest, those who now complain that lockdown should have been imposed sooner should remember that they were always free to use their common sense and put themselves in lockdown at any time they wanted before the final step was officially announced... as I did.

 

[izwozral]

Oh dear, here we go. I distinctly remember when lockdown was first being talked about that the public were incredibly anti any measures like that. The government were bombarded with people saying it would be total overkill for something akin to flu. It took a good couple of weeks of one-at-a-time little steps towards lockdown to get the public used to the idea without causing anarchy. I also wish lockdown had been imposed when the government first wanted it but they took the path of treading gently and building up to it, to get buy-in and cooperation. To be brutally honest, those who now complain that lockdown should have been imposed sooner should remember that they were always free to use their common sense and put themselves in lockdown at any time they wanted before the final step was officially announced... as I did.

Not my recollection of it Jenny.

I think most people were scared enough to do as instructed by Boris, of course there were the nay sayers, there still are, but I would say the majority did as instructed. There are some on here who still think the whole thing was/is a 'nonsense' but they are a definite minority.

Totally agree with you regarding people should have used their common sense, unfortunately, any common sense some people may have had seems to have gone out of the window as of a couple of weeks ago.
Nothing much has changed for Izzy & I, we are not going to the pub, nor restaurants or cafe's, we are avoiding crowds and social distancing from everybody else, this will be the norm for us for a long time to come.

Said it before, will say it again, we have not seen the back of this pandemic and I fear there is a lot worse to come, economically and with the death rate.

It isn't just dying of Covid 19 that we should worry about, it is the after effect of having it should you survive the virus. For some it is a life changing experience such as irreparable lung damage, long term mental health issues, muscle wastage, incontinence, loss of speech and damage to the central nervous system.

 

[trevskoda]

Unfortunately what some do surprises me less and less there days. I was on a campsite just below Ayr and in what were perfectly good clean toilets they crapped all over the floor for some reason.

Some do that in shopping centres,some folk think they will get AIDS if they sit on a seat or girls get pregnant,yes even in these days some are still daft.

 

[in h]

To be brutally honest, those who now complain that lockdown should have been imposed sooner should remember that they were always free to use their common sense and put themselves in lockdown at any time they wanted before the final step was officially announced... as I did.

You are completely missing the point.

Putting yourself in lockdown stops you catching it for a while, but it doesn't stop the virus replicating in the country. So when you eventually come out of lockdown, it will be there, waiting.

If we had locked down soon enough, and quarantined people coming into the country, just as New Zealand did, we would be completely free of it by now, as they are.

Lockdown would be completely finished and businesses back to normal (except for businesses that rely on visitors from overseas).

Of course this is only possible for an island nation, like New Zealand. And the UK.

One has a smart, effective PM who saw what to do and did it effectively, and the other... erm... doesn't.

 

[trevskoda]

Not my recollection of it Jenny.

I think most people were scared enough to do as instructed by Boris, of course there were the nay sayers, there still are, but I would say the majority did as instructed. There are some on here who still think the whole thing was/is a 'nonsense' but they are a definite minority.

Totally agree with you regarding people should have used their common sense, unfortunately, any common sense some people may have had seems to have gone out of the window as of a couple of weeks ago.
Nothing much has changed for Izzy & I, we are not going to the pub, nor restaurants or cafe's, we are avoiding crowds and social distancing from everybody else, this will be the norm for us for a long time to come.

Said it before, will say it again, we have not seen the back of this pandemic and I fear there is a lot worse to come, economically and with the death rate.

It isn't just dying of Covid 19 that we should worry about, it is the after effect of having it should you survive the virus. For some it is a life changing experience such as irreparable lung damage, long term mental health issues, muscle wastage, incontinence, loss of speech and damage to the central nervous system.

I know a big chap who got it and left him like a walking zombe when he can manage to walk some days.

 

[mfw]

At least by the end of the month we will know how bad it actually is we will be back in lockdown or free to roam and peoples worries will be less if no spike occurs

 

[antiquesam]

You are completely missing the point.

Putting yourself in lockdown stops you catching it for a while, but it doesn't stop the virus replicating in the country. So when you eventually come out of lockdown, it will be there, waiting.

If we had locked down soon enough, and quarantined people coming into the country, just as New Zealand did, we would be completely free of it by now, as they are.

Lockdown would be completely finished and businesses back to normal (except for businesses that rely on visitors from overseas).

Of course this is only possible for an island nation, like New Zealand. And the UK.

One has a smart, effective PM who saw what to do and did it effectively, and the other... erm... doesn't.

You seem to be saying that the virus is lurking out in the undergrowth waiting to pounce on anyone silly enough venture out.
In the places where the virus has spiked it seems the cause is indoors, with noise, low temperatures and moisture. Strangely the positive tests aren't being reflected in hospital admissions.
The crowded beaches shown two weeks ago haven't produced the increased cases predicted by some.
Everyone must do what they feel safe with and if that means bricking up the doors and windows so be it, but please don't criticise others for doing what they feel safe with.

 

[in h]

I am saying that the virus is lurking in peoples throats, not in the undergrowth. Are you suggesting it isn't?

 

[ricc]

if this deadly virus is waiting to catch us when we come out of lockdown , whats the point of lockdown if its going to get us eventually.?


ill answer my own question, the point of lockdown was to reduce the hospital admission rate to a level the nhs could cope with. in practise the admission rate went a lot lower, nightingales were never used . lockdown was never intended to stop everyone from catching covid.

 

[antiquesam]

I am saying that the virus is lurking in peoples throats, not in the undergrowth. Are you suggesting it isn't?

I'm merely interpreting your second paragraph.
Where the spikes are occurring the hospital admissions aren't spiking at the same rate and the spikes aren't being seen where people are congregating outside but in food processing factories and sweat shops
Perhaps the answer to beating the virus would be to give up meat, processed food and cheap clothing.

 

[barryd]

Not my recollection of it Jenny.

I think most people were scared enough to do as instructed by Boris, of course there were the nay sayers, there still are, but I would say the majority did as instructed. There are some on here who still think the whole thing was/is a 'nonsense' but they are a definite minority.

Totally agree with you regarding people should have used their common sense, unfortunately, any common sense some people may have had seems to have gone out of the window as of a couple of weeks ago.
Nothing much has changed for Izzy & I, we are not going to the pub, nor restaurants or cafe's, we are avoiding crowds and social distancing from everybody else, this will be the norm for us for a long time to come.

Said it before, will say it again, we have not seen the back of this pandemic and I fear there is a lot worse to come, economically and with the death rate.

It isn't just dying of Covid 19 that we should worry about, it is the after effect of having it should you survive the virus. For some it is a life changing experience such as irreparable lung damage, long term mental health issues, muscle wastage, incontinence, loss of speech and damage to the central nervous system.

Not my reflection of it either. I seem to remember a lot of people back in March screaming for Johnson to do something and lock down as were the World Health Organisation and other countries like Italy. Meanwhile our hapless PM was bragging about shaking hands in hospitals where there were coronavirus patients and mumbling on about "taking it on the chin" before low and behold nearly dying of Coronavirus himself.

I think there is little doubt that back then they were still farting about with this heard immunity strategy but they then wasted those precious couple of weeks before bottling it and locking down. That was the big mistake. Experts reckon tens of thousands of lives could have been saved just by locking down a week or two earlier but now probably over 60000 people are dead as a result of not doing so. Since then its been one cock up after another. Sending untested patients from hospitals back into care homes was just unbelievable. Lying about PPE stocks, Counting a nose and mouth swab of one person as two tests, the list goes on and on.

Ill get accused of Tory and Johnson bashing no doubt now but lets face it, they cocked up big style and will continue to do so by the looks of it. You cant shout hindsight either as we sat and watched it coming like rabbits in the headlights.

 

[in h]

Lockdown should have been brought in earlier, and allied to a test, track and trace strategy. As it was done in New Zealand. That way, they got rid of Covid-19. Yes, they are restricted as far as international travel is concerned, but life is back to normal there, without any fear or risk of the virus.

I guess that their release will be the development of an effective vaccine. For other countries they're going to be on this rollercoaster of lockdowns and businesses closing, relaxations and second waves.

Because we locked down two or three weeks too late, all it could do was decrease the spike of infections, but done properly and in time, it could have been so much more effective - and would have cost VASTLY less money.

 

[mark61]

Those people screaming, would have been the same people screaming if we had gone into lockdown earlier. Which is why we have a name for such people.

 

[in h]

I'm merely interpreting your second paragraph.
Where the spikes are occurring the hospital admissions aren't spiking at the same rate and the spikes aren't being seen where people are congregating outside but in food processing factories and sweat shops
Perhaps the answer to beating the virus would be to give up meat, processed food and cheap clothing.

The relationship between infections, ill health and hospital admissions isn't a simple one.

Chances are that most of the people working at the meat processing plants and sweatshops are relatively young, fit and healthy, so they will catch the disease, infect others but not get specially ill. Certainly not ill enough to go to hospital, possibly not ill enough to be tested.

The people they infect, or the people those people infect, will include people who are much less likely to be in a position to fight off the virus. By the time they get to hospital, it could be five or six weeks later. And they won't start dying for another week or two after that.

That's why it was so vital to test, track and trace. The country had an effective setup for doing that, but Boris decided to bypass all that and give the contract to his cronies, who are as useless as you'd expect.

 

[in h]

Those people screaming, would have been the same people screaming if we had gone into lockdown earlier. Which is why we have a name for such people.

I don't hear anyone screaming, except Daily Mail readers.

 

[antiquesam]

The relationship between infections, ill health and hospital admissions isn't a simple one.

Chances are that most of the people working at the meat processing plants and sweatshops are relatively young, fit and healthy, so they will catch the disease, infect others but not get specially ill. Certainly not ill enough to go to hospital, possibly not ill enough to be tested.

The people they infect, or the people those people infect, will include people who are much less likely to be in a position to fight off the virus. By the time they get to hospital, it could be five or six weeks later. And they won't start dying for another week or two after that.

That's why it was so vital to test, track and trace. The country had an effective setup for doing that, but Boris decided to bypass all that and give the contract to his cronies, who are as useless as you'd expect.

They are testing everyone in the food processing plants and therefore should know contacts.

 

[mr. badolki]

My wife shares your concern, our plan is to continue to avoid crowds by travelling to quiet areas locally to build up confidence. In the meantime we will watch and wait, let the initial wave of enthusiastic campers and visitors subside a little and pick and choose somewhere where we are reasonably confident there will be few problems, not least with crowds. Also want to see if there is a spike caused by the easing, I reckon after waiting so long, a couple of weeks patience may be the way to go, Whatever you decide good luck.

Indeed ! Better some patience now rather than a patient later !