getting a bit bloody close !

antiquesam said:
You're figures seem slightly dodgy. 60 to 80 percent contracting it isn't yet happening. Even on the Diamond Princess the figure is around 20 percent. Any disruption seems to be caused by sensationalism and panic rather than fact.
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Yes all are open to revision. They are based on expert predictions. I could post a reference? That 60-80% is assuming we just ignore the virus and let it take its course as some people suggest. On the Diamond princess they are trying to limit the transmission so hopefully they will stay below those percentages.
 
It seems the system of isolation on the Diamond Princess was flawed, in so far as there were no clearly defined clean and dirty areas, so people moved from a contaminated area to a clean space without a change of equipment, particularly acute with crew members visiting all cabins to deliver food, and remove potentially contaminated dirty plates. On that basis the ship was a hotbed for the virus and should be the maximum possible contamination.
My figure of 7,000 deaths was an exaggeration based on rumour and speculation on the premise that China is not recording all cases, but it is currently around 2,700. Of course we don't know how many people have contracted the virus and merely mistaken it for flu and recovered without being added to the figures.
 
antiquesam said:
It seems the system of isolation on the Diamond Princess was flawed, in so far as there were no clearly defined clean and dirty areas, so people moved from a contaminated area to a clean space without a change of equipment, particularly acute with crew members visiting all cabins to deliver food, and remove potentially contaminated dirty plates. On that basis the ship was a hotbed for the virus and should be the maximum possible contamination.
My figure of 7,000 deaths was an exaggeration based on rumour and speculation on the premise that China is not recording all cases, but it is currently around 2,700. Of course we don't know how many people have contracted the virus and merely mistaken it for flu and recovered without being added to the figures.
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So you are suggesting that if they stopped isolation and had a compulsory ship meeting followed by a mass love in, there would be no more cases ?
 
Derekoak said:
So you are suggesting that if they stopped isolation and had a compulsory ship meeting followed by a mass love in, there would be no more cases ?
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To be serious I'm saying they were doing exactly what you describe, or as good as. The crew were also in quarantine but were going from cabin to cabin. They may have picked it up from a passenger or crew member and spread it all over the ship. The methodology was unsafe.
 
:) i was just responding to your use of the word " Maximum - possible transmission". I was not at all suggesting the action was sensible.
Even then the ship has not been cleared of virus so 20% is a minimum, for this outbreak
 
"The USA meaning of a billion is a thousand million, or one followed by nine noughts (1,000,000,000). Increasingly in this country we are using the USA meaning of a billion for these big numbers, and a trillion for the old UK meaning of one followed by twelve noughts. "

I know the above is correct because I counted all my 50p pieces. ;)
 
I wouldn't be too miffed at an extra two weeks holiday on a cruise ship ill or not, better than stuck in hospital, l assume entertainment was still laid on.
 
martinmartin said:
I wouldn't be too miffed at an extra two weeks holiday on a cruise ship ill or not, better than stuck in hospital, l assume entertainment was still laid on.
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Listening to the reports everyone was confined to their cabins and the people in the inner cabins didn't see daylight for their 2 weeks and quality of food went down to prison rations
 
Pupils sent home from Truro school after returning from skiing trip in Italy
 
izwozral said:
Thanks for the update on NZ, our daughter is there so your post is reassuring - so far.
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Yep, I'm also in NZ and also planning a campervan trip to Europe in May! (see you there Kevarama?!). And true, no cases yet here but it seems inevitable that we will succumb eventually. I'm also wondering about the need to reconsider the itinerary but as mentioned by others, we have to take the stats in context and consider the odds. We today have a lotto draw of $42m up for grabs with an estimated chance of 1 in 38 million! - but you should see the queues buying the tickets!! You stand a better chance of flipping a coin to heads 28 times in a row! I guess we'll still have a great time in Europe without the win🤞
 
I'm starting to worry that my river cruise on the Douro in May might be cancelled due to all this panic. If holidays get cancelled on a large scale there will be a lot of tour operators going belly up.
 
It’s certainly hitting the markets hard, most of Europe down another 3% today to add to the falls described in this article.
 
Visited a friend yesterday who makes all of her income from crafting.

She says some of the suppliers she regularly buys kit from in China have been unable to fulfil orders for several weeks now.

Hasn't affected her too badly so far as she's managed to buy one or two things needed from elsewhere, but it's definitely had an impact on her production and costs.

That's just one self-employed woman with no staff, so the economic impacts will be much bigger as you go further up the feeding chain.

Mr Phil is going to be not far off with his predictions, methinks.
 
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