What is Happening in the Real Economy ?

[ivecotrucker]

I don't generally dabble much in the 'Off Topic' subject zone but I would be interested in any feedback.

In 25 years I've never previously seen such low midweek traffic flows on our local main roads, A30, A35, A38 & the southern end of the M5. Local builder's merchants such as Jewson, Travis Perkins, Wickes have more sales counter staff than customers over the last few months whenever I've called in. A local steel-stockholder was delighted with my pityfully small recent order, again I was the only customer in their yard. Our local self-styled 'regional shopping centre', (Trago Mills) usually has the cheapest fuel around which always meant queuing but for some months now it is usually possible to drive straight up to a pump.
Are monthly regional fuel sales summaries available anywhere ?. Some weeks ago at 9.0pm on a Friday night (usually peak period) we were not just the only customers in our local pub, we were the first of the evening. Another local pub closed for good just before Christmas.

This is not a precise, statistically correct study but it doesn't need to be - the things I'm speaking of are obvious on the ground. I'm not by nature a pessimist but one could think that the South West is slowly, very slowly but unmistakeably dying. This week we have just under one page of job adverts in the local paper, 13 in all of which 4 are public sector and of the remaining 9 just 6 are full time, in an area the size of a semi-rural parliamentary constituency. There will certainly be other jobs at the Jobcentre, I would hope, but just 6 advertised full time jobs in an area of x100's square miles doesn't look like economic recovery to me.

How do things look elswhere in the UK ?; over to you please.

 

[jonkil]

Banks stifling the life out of small businesses.
Withdrawing overdrafts and restructuring them to term loans and calling it "new lending".
Zero credit availability to potential customers in all walks of life.
Banks paying 6 figure bonuses to "gamblers" within their ranks without accountability.
Tax system completely outdated regarding taking on staff.

Absolutely zero optimism from the public regarding the economy.
People not spending with fear for the future.
Government acting like headless chickens and have no ability to instil confidence.

Well that's what Ireland is like, less so in UK.
Will be at least 10 years before things change, but now good time to invest. Bricks and mortar and land is still the #1 investment and will "come good" in the long grass.

 

[yorkslass]

pretty much the same in west yorkshire. i heard, though i dont know how true it is, that wages equate to levels about 15 years ago but everything has gone up. i think the average person is afraid and is therefore hanging onto every penny. very scary with no sign of improvement in the near future.

 

[bestyman]

I'm from West Yorkshire too.

Ive never know things so quiet. It seems to have happened all within the last 6 months. Everyone I know is skint.

Like you say, pubs empty, shops empty,roads quiet. Well, thats apart from the Poundshop and Primark.

I think it affects the young or people with children mostly.

 

[ivecotrucker]

Yes Bestyman, that's the point I'm making - not the economic circumstances of the last 4 - 5 years that we all know about but what seems to be a considerable worsening as you say over the last 6 months (I'd say about the last 4 months down here).

 

[daisymini]

I cant believe how much food has gone up in price even in aldi let alone asda etc....and after the wet 2012 im sure all our root veg is going to rocket in price...but what confuses me is:...when we have a good season they never seem to lower the price after, we have mountains of wasted produce apparently(dont quote me) but i watch country file...lol they just churn back into the land coz its the wrong shape?????? what as happened to this country and the world when we dont think we can eat a spring onion that isnt just the right size or shape to satisfy the multi million pound exploiters lilke tescos!!!!!

 

[Cliffy]

High end Motorhome dealers appear to be doing OK

Went to Kimberley's showroom at Darlington today to start my search for a replacement van for next year (2014) They had around eight brand new Hymers lined up sold ready for collection That's around half a million pounds worth.

People with money are not feeling the pinch.

IMHO The ones getting hit are everyone who is on fixed incomes/benefits/pensions and hard working small businessmen are the ones struggling.

I am not whinging I have retired early and managing OK after 45 years of work and saving up. It does annoy me that the super rich are getting richer at the expense of others. Alright I might be whinging just a little bit.:sad:

 

[tanera]

Every month the government/Bank of England stand on their back legs and announce the underlying rate of inflation is under 4% or so.
I wonder what they base that on- certainly not the same things I buy. It's only a few years ago that £100 worth of shopping wouldn't fit into the boot of the car, last week that was the cost of five carrier bagsfull.
A builder friend told me there's never been a better time to build a house, builders merchants are tripping over one another to cut their costs as are builders.The minimum wage will be the next casualty.

Supermarkets have been exposed as horse traders but what else is up their sleeves- I cant wait until chicken comes out of the closet- then what?

 

[Deleted member 24143]

ivecotrucker I think you will find that the local jobcentre doesn't have that many jobs either and most of those will be part-time and/or temporary. Where I live, small rural east coast town, the local pound shop is closing. Several other shops and a pub have recently closed as well. This area doesn't even exist as far as the government is concerned and the local council just push up business rates killing any hope of jobs. The only way this area, and in fact anywhere in England, to have a hope of recovering from this current long downturn is for the whole country to be renamed London then everywhere would benefit from the investment in infrastructure and jobs that always goes to London at the expense of the rest of England.

I say England because Wales, Scotland NI have devolved government to look after the interests of those parts of the UK.

 

[mrbadger]

I read a story on Yahoo the other day (its Yahoo so it must be true!!) that said illegal immigrants were now paying the same gangs that got then into Britain to get them out again!! They're going to France and Spain as the prospects and lifestyle are better!! If that's true, it must be the worst indictment of the state of the UK.... Rats and sinking ships come to mind!!

However, we've been in southern Spain since New Year, and we are feeling no pain whatsoever!!

 

[Bigpeetee]

Sadly it's all around the country.

Turned up to do a gig in Holyhead on Saturday to find the venue had been shut down. The council rates were just too much. A common theme.

In addition to all the other issues previously mentioned in this thread

Of course the local councils still have VERY high standards that their staff have to enjoy, the difference between the NHS and Council in N Wales is massive, not just in this county, but all the N Wales counties.

But they hold a monopoly on services such as waste disposal, as a householder, I cannot go to a private contractor to empty my bins or recycling, so are stuck with the council.

A council that invents its own awards, and splashes them all over the papers telling you how wonderful they are.

Customers of mine recoil in horror at the thought of working in the private sector as they couldn't afford the pay cut or reduction in benefits.

Our income has dropped over the past 5 years whilst the cost of existing has risen all the time, sadly those that have created all of this mess have not been penalised but in many cases given pay increases.

Great number of employees of councils, banks etc actually believe in their own propaganda to the extent that when faced with solid facts, bury their heads or hide behind the corporate/local authority fire wall and ignore the truth.

PS, not just this country either, but a general malaise across Europe. That's what the "Global Economy" brings!!

 

[mariesnowgoose]

When will someone get it through to local councils that if they dramatically reduced their property business rates they'd have a lot more takers?

They're sitting on god knows how much empty business/industrial property and the situation is getting worse all the time.
Is that good business? I don't think so! It's just as bad as the subprime mortgage fiasco, imo.

Also, if you have a local outdoor (or indoor) regular market the day rates for these are also too high and increase year on year.
Why not have reasonable rates? Far better than seeing historical markets throughout the country fading away year after year.
If you've got some little entrepreneurs who want to have a stab at selling their wares they're put off before they even take their first step!

I have an amusing story - well, it would be if it wasn't for the fact money was wasted (what's new?!)
Chester-le-Street council revamped their outdoor market back in 2007.

So what did these geniuses decide to do?

1. They reduced the space for the number of stalls it could accommodate, so many regular, longstanding stallholders could no longer come as they didn't have a pitch.
2. They put the rates up (forgone conclusion).
3. They commissioned someone to design a large brick arch (for "artistic effect"?) in 2007 - which served no purpose, looked ugly and took away valuable space originally used for stalls.

Here's the joke: the £334,000 arch, less than 5 years old built by the now-defunct district council (hurray!), is due to be demolished next month after suffering repeated vandalism.

The trouble is very few council managers have experience of the real business world.
Even if they do, changing the jobsworth culture and injecting some vision and energy into these organisations is a seemingly impossible task.

The system of local councillors doesn't help either, at least that's my personal experience.
It's just another type of boys' club.

We are lumbered with an almost pre-historic public sector as far as generating business goes.
It's about time the dinosaurs went extinct, the systems were shaken up and some new blood injected asap.

Get some bl**dy women in charge!

Signed: the Fence Sitter

 

[John H]

I cant believe how much food has gone up in price even in aldi let alone asda etc....and after the wet 2012 im sure all our root veg is going to rocket in price...but what confuses me is:...when we have a good season they never seem to lower the price after, we have mountains of wasted produce apparently(dont quote me) but i watch country file...lol they just churn back into the land coz its the wrong shape?????? what as happened to this country and the world when we dont think we can eat a spring onion that isnt just the right size or shape to satisfy the multi million pound exploiters lilke tescos!!!!!

I am currently in the south-east of Spain, where most of the tomatoes and peppers that find their way into stores such as Tescos are grown. Because of the strict and nonsensical rules about size and shape that they apply, there are an awful lot of tomatoes and peppers that are rejected. Some of these find their way onto the local market stalls (where every sensible person down here buys their veg!) for ridiculously low prices such as 50 cents a kilo (that's about 20p per lb!). Not only that but they taste better than the uniform stuff you get in Tesco's. Unfortunately, however, there is so much rejected stuff that mountains of it are simply thrown into skips (where at least the really poor folk can shop for nothing!). Crazy world, isn't it?

 

[sparrks]

I am currently in the south-east of Spain, where most of the tomatoes and peppers that find their way into stores such as Tescos are grown. Because of the strict and nonsensical rules about size and shape that they apply, there are an awful lot of tomatoes and peppers that are rejected. Some of these find their way onto the local market stalls (where every sensible person down here buys their veg!) for ridiculously low prices such as 50 cents a kilo (that's about 20p per lb!). Not only that but they taste better than the uniform stuff you get in Tesco's. Unfortunately, however, there is so much rejected stuff that mountains of it are simply thrown into skips (where at least the really poor folk can shop for nothing!). Crazy world, isn't it?

Why does a tomato rejected by Tesco and sold on a market stall taste better than a uniform one? Just curious, I agree tomatos sold in a green grocers taste better than from Tesco.

 

[Bigpeetee]

Why does a tomato rejected by Tesco and sold on a market stall taste better than a uniform one? Just curious, I agree tomatos sold in a green grocers taste better than from Tesco.

The taste in your mouth for paying stupid money to a supermarket that has ridiculous rules is very bitter, therefore anything else, ie cheaper "odd shapes" Must taste better

 

[jamesmarshall]

I take a walk round the fruit and vegetable section at Tescos or Asda and iy all looks beautiful. Its well presented but as for taste it may as well be wax.

 

[John H]

Why does a tomato rejected by Tesco and sold on a market stall taste better than a uniform one? Just curious, I agree tomatos sold in a green grocers taste better than from Tesco.

No idea. All I know is that when I am in England I rarely eat tomatoes (except home-grown ones) because they are flavourless. In Spain I eat them all the time because they are delicious - irrespective of the size and shape!

Btw, I don't eat tomatoes from Spanish supermarkets either because they are generally not as tasty as the ones from the market stalls.

 

[Bigpeetee]

However, the Lazy culture that has developed in this country is partly to blame.

I know young parents, male & female, that are on the breadline, yet still buy ready prepared vegetables in supermarkets.

They can't be bothered to peel and slice, even saying they don't know how too.

How can we have a generation that can't/won't peal a vegetable, never mind cook them.??

Sorry, but there's something missing in our parenting skills as a nation.

We've collectively kidded our children into believing that it's OK to buy,buy,buy without any care for the consequences.

Probably this is the wrong forum to go on about this as by reading many of the points of view on these forums, many of us DO care. But there's a great majority that have been hoodwinked from an early age that the only solution is to buy ready made everything and that knives, pointy things and matches are too dangerous.

 

[GRWXJR]

I'm no economist, but....

Without wanting to be alarmist, in the words of Private Fraser off Dad's Army "We're all Doomed!". But this is how I see it, and why we cannot expect any significant 'growth' or 'recovery' for the foreseeable future, possibly ever.

If the UK was to be compared to the man in the street, then that man would be homeless, with no job, no assets, no credit rating and no collateral at all.

Successive governments starting with Thatcher have basically held a Fire Sale of everything we the taxpayer owned to 'privatise' it. So we have utilities and everything else in foreign ownership, or at least private ownership being run for profit, not for service.

E.g. the utility services got their infrastructure run into the ground instead of being maintained and invested in.
When 'privatised' the asset stock and infrastructure was sold off at a fraction of one percent of the asset value, let alone as a proportion of its business value (think of the trillions it would cost to establish a water or power network).
Basically the British taxpayer didn't understand what was going on, and got fleeced by their own successive incompetent elected representatives, and those nefarious unelected suits that really run everything called 'The Civil Service'.

Now I know the public sector needed sorting out and being run far, far better, but by flogging it off we basically lost all the assets that looked after the basic needs of the people. The public sector needed to be run far better for sure, but at least the public sector employed more people making them taxpayers not on handouts. The Utilities prime among them - which used to run for service to the consumer, not for profits for some loaded guys with a portfolio and a swiss bank account.

E.g. Welsh Water had to be bailed out once (of course by taxpayers money - just like the banks) - why? Cos it was asset stripped by the 'private contractors' who had bid to run the service on behalf of Welsh Water had the staffing cut to pieces and the infrastructure maintenance cut to the bone -they basically took the money and ran. This is my point - if a private business is run badly, then it can fail and shut down. If a public utility is run the same way, then you can't just turn all the taps off, so the Government uses our money to pay to put right what was wrecked by fat cats now sat on a beach somewhere else with all the money.

So, we sold trillions of assets of public utility for pennies, then let the purchasers run it into the ground while making billions more at our expense, then bailed them out for billions more when it was ruined. What a bloody fantastic model for running utilities efficiently THAT turned out to be. Basically we got shafted (surprise, surprise!).

Gordon Brown ran things so badly that the only thing making our economy look good was the artificially inflated (by permitting ludicrously massive mortgage borrowing to support it) housing market. GB must have known it was a house of cards, as it wasn't a sustainable income stream that could, would (and did) collapse. I think he never tried to stop it, because he simply didn't have a clue what else to do, so he let it run until it imploded.

So now the UK doesn't actually OWN anything as it was all flogged off for a quick buck to shore up the fact that the economy was being 'run' awfully. So we have no assets, and no real income stream other than 'financial services'.

In short, the UK is skint, and has nothing much left to sell (which if sold provides only the briefest respite and long-term makes an untenable situation even worse. So 'economic recovery' is something politicians use as a dangling carrot, which has about as much potential reality as the Easter Bunny.

Basically if like me you are an ordinary working stiff whose never had a public sector job with its benefits and pensions, and has had to live with lower private sector wages (Wales) and little opportunity to save, then - you're screwed. If you've been clever enough or fortunate enough to amass some wealth and property, and have been able to hold onto it, then you might be ok.

Our children and our children's children do not have a good environment ahead of them - the UK 'peaked' in the time of the working lives of the immediate post-war generation, and has been in decline for some time, which has been accelerated in my lifetime by appalling mismanagement.

Sorry to be so negative and 'doom & gloom'!

G.

 

[sparrks]

However, the Lazy culture that has developed in this country is partly to blame.

I know young parents, male & female, that are on the breadline, yet still buy ready prepared vegetables in supermarkets.

They can't be bothered to peel and slice, even saying they don't know how too.

How can we have a generation that can't/won't peal a vegetable, never mind cook them.??

Sorry, but there's something missing in our parenting skills as a nation.

We've collectively kidded our children into believing that it's OK to buy,buy,buy without any care for the consequences.

Probably this is the wrong forum to go on about this as by reading many of the points of view on these forums, many of us DO care. But there's a great majority that have been hoodwinked from an early age that the only solution is to buy ready made everything and that knives, pointy things and matches are too dangerous.

I remember a few elections ago when a Tory MP suggested that if people were starving they should grow food in there gardens if they had them - common sense I thought, but not in Britain, he got slated in the press for that, when I was growing up most of the veg we ate came from our garden.

Without wanting to be alarmist, in the words of Private Fraser off Dad's Army "We're all Doomed!". But this is how I see it, and why we cannot expect any significant 'growth' or 'recovery' for the foreseeable future, possibly ever.

If the UK was to be compared to the man in the street, then that man would be homeless, with no job, no assets, no credit rating and no collateral at all.

Successive governments starting with Thatcher have basically held a Fire Sale of everything we the taxpayer owned to 'privatise' it. So we have utilities and everything else in foreign ownership, or at least private ownership being run for profit, not for service.

E.g. the utility services got their infrastructure run into the ground instead of being maintained and invested in.
When 'privatised' the asset stock and infrastructure was sold off at a fraction of one percent of the asset value, let alone as a proportion of its business value (think of the trillions it would cost to establish a water or power network).
Basically the British taxpayer didn't understand what was going on, and got fleeced by their own successive incompetent elected representatives, and those nefarious unelected suits that really run everything called 'The Civil Service'.

Now I know the public sector needed sorting out and being run far, far better, but by flogging it off we basically lost all the assets that looked after the basic needs of the people. The public sector needed to be run far better for sure, but at least the public sector employed more people making them taxpayers not on handouts. The Utilities prime among them - which used to run for service to the consumer, not for profits for some loaded guys with a portfolio and a swiss bank account.

E.g. Welsh Water had to be bailed out once (of course by taxpayers money - just like the banks) - why? Cos it was asset stripped by the 'private contractors' who had bid to run the service on behalf of Welsh Water had the staffing cut to pieces and the infrastructure maintenance cut to the bone -they basically took the money and ran. This is my point - if a private business is run badly, then it can fail and shut down. If a public utility is run the same way, then you can't just turn all the taps off, so the Government uses our money to pay to put right what was wrecked by fat cats now sat on a beach somewhere else with all the money.

So, we sold trillions of assets of public utility for pennies, then let the purchasers run it into the ground while making billions more at our expense, then bailed them out for billions more when it was ruined. What a bloody fantastic model for running utilities efficiently THAT turned out to be. Basically we got shafted (surprise, surprise!).

Gordon Brown ran things so badly that the only thing making our economy look good was the artificially inflated (by permitting ludicrously massive mortgage borrowing to support it) housing market. GB must have known it was a house of cards, as it wasn't a sustainable income stream that could, would (and did) collapse. I think he never tried to stop it, because he simply didn't have a clue what else to do, so he let it run until it imploded.

So now the UK doesn't actually OWN anything as it was all flogged off for a quick buck to shore up the fact that the economy was being 'run' awfully. So we have no assets, and no real income stream other than 'financial services'.

In short, the UK is skint, and has nothing much left to sell (which if sold provides only the briefest respite and long-term makes an untenable situation even worse. So 'economic recovery' is something politicians use as a dangling carrot, which has about as much potential reality as the Easter Bunny.

Basically if like me you are an ordinary working stiff whose never had a public sector job with its benefits and pensions, and has had to live with lower private sector wages (Wales) and little opportunity to save, then - you're screwed. If you've been clever enough or fortunate enough to amass some wealth and property, and have been able to hold onto it, then you might be ok.

Our children and our children's children do not have a good environment ahead of them - the UK 'peaked' in the time of the working lives of the immediate post-war generation, and has been in decline for some time, which has been accelerated in my lifetime by appalling mismanagement.

Sorry to be so negative and 'doom & gloom'!

G.

It seems to me that a lot of the times private and public sector collaborations result in the private companies taking the profits and the tax payer get stung for the losses.

Why couldn't the 450billion or so that went on quantative easing be spent on infrastructure, at least we would have something to show for it.