A mystery

John H

John H

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A megalomaniac Arab leader in Lybia murders thousands of his innocent subjects and the world steps in to "protect" them; a megalomaniac Arab leader in Syria does the same in Hama and the world finds better things to do. Can anybody think of a possible reason why these two cases should be treated differently? Answers to be posted on the door of your nearest petrol station.

Second question - why is the world a place that I'd rather not be associated with these days?
 
perhaps your CAPITALIST side is underdeveloped .or your SOCIALIST side is running rampant .
but you think like many of us and my head hurts from banging it against a WALL:mad1:
 
John,

you're not getting cynical in your old age are you??

I suppose if the Syrians had blown up a Jumbo there might be a reason to help, I'm sure this has nothing to do with the availability of Hydrocarbon deposits at all??
 
MOS - I'll certainly plead guilty to that!

Pete - cynical, moi??? (but what has it got to do with elephants?)
 
Dezi said:
Possibly the answer is spelt out by our American cousins.

Why Libya, But Not Syria? - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

I am more concerned that Egypts ruling army is currently in talks with the Muslim brotherhood & those individuals are a lot farther to the right than Osama bin Laden ever was.

Dezi
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An interesting article - and a lot in it makes sense. But there are things that do not make much sense to me, such as:
1. the statement that oil is not a major factor - I know someone who worked in the oil fields in Lybia and, although foreign companies are tolerated they are far from secure in Ghadaffi's Lybia, so the argument that the west would be more secure with the devil they know than the army they are hoping to help into power seems thin. Or let's put it another way - if the inevitable happens and the rebels take control are they likely to tolerate oil companies from countries who helped them or those who did not?
2. the statement that Syria's army is better equipped than Libya's - the last time it was tested, Israel smashed it, so does anybody really think the USA would consider this to be a problem?
3. the west hasn't intervened because it doesn't know who to support - how does this differ from Libya, where nothing much unites the warlords of the rebel opposition except the desire to get rid of Ghadaffi - and from what little we know they are not averse to killing each other!

As for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, yes they might be a problem but I doubt that it is realistic to say they are a bigger potential threat than Al Qaeda. I know Egypt very well and have had many a long conversation with, among others, members of the Brotherhood. Their stated positon is of non-violence (Bin Laden disowned them for being an enemy of the Jihad) and their proposals for the forthcoming elections suggest that they will be modelling themselves on the Turkish model (ruled by an Islamic Party that has modified its ideals since taking power so as to be considered an ally by the USA). They are acutely aware of the need to maintain the tourist industry and are careful to do nothing that might stop people visiting Egypt. Of course, if and when the do take power, things could change (and I am aware of the precedents, such as Hitler in Germany) but for the moment the Brotherhood have a very softly-softly approach, not least because they have very little support among the young - and that is crucial in a country like Egypt. An interesting debate, though.
 
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John H said:
An interesting article - and a lot in it makes sense. But there are things that do not make much sense to me, such as:
1. the statement that oil is not a major factor - I know someone who worked in the oil fields in Lybia and, although foreign companies are tolerated they are far from secure in Ghadaffi's Lybia, so the argument that the west would be more secure with the devil they know than the army they are hoping to help into power seems thin. Or let's put it another way - if the inevitable happens and the rebels take control are they likely to tolerate oil companies from countries who helped them or those who did not?
2. the statement that Syria's army is better equipped than Libya's - the last time it was tested, Israel smashed it, so does anybody really think the USA would consider this to be a problem?
3. the west hasn't intervened because it doesn't know who to support - how does this differ from Libya, where nothing much unites the warlords of the rebel opposition except the desire to get rid of Ghadaffi - and from what little we know they are not averse to killing each other!

As for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, yes they might be a problem but I doubt that it is realistic to say they are a bigger potential threat than Al Qaeda. I know Egypt very well and have had many a long conversation with, among others, members of the Brotherhood. Their stated positon is of non-violence (Bin Laden disowned them for being an enemy of the Jihad) and their proposals for the forthcoming elections suggest that they will be modelling themselves on the Turkish model (ruled by an Islamic Party that has modified its ideals since taking power so as to be considered an ally by the USA). They are acutely aware of the need to maintain the tourist industry and are careful to do nothing that might stop people visiting Egypt. Of course, if and when the do take power, things could change (and I am aware of the precedents, such as Hitler in Germany) but for the moment the Brotherhood have a very softly-softly approach, not least because they have very little support among the young - and that is crucial in a country like Egypt. An interesting debate, though.
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Well John I am delighted that your friends have calmed your doubts. Mine are not so easily soothed.

I also know the middle east & its complexities. It is a well established fact among local & foreign journalist in Egypt that the Egyptian Islamist terrorist organization founded by the Muslim Brotherhood is re-establishing itself amid the current political upheaval in Cairo & threatening the very people who toppled the government.

Both Egyptian and Israeli security officials have said that the group, Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, has been reconstituted at the direction of the Muslim Brotherhood.

As for looking after the tourist industry, I would point out that this is the same Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya that has been responsible for killing dozens of innocent tourist visiting Egypt over the past 20 years & while the Brotherhood is still claiming it has abandoned violence to push for a peaceful takeover of Egypt, the group’s new spiritual leader, Muhammad Badi, recently has recently called for violent jihad, including war against the U.S A.

So I will reserve my judgement for a little while longer.

Dezi
 
Dezi said:
Well John I am delighted that your friends have calmed your doubts. Mine are not so easily soothed.

I also know the middle east & its complexities. It is a well established fact among local & foreign journalist in Egypt that the Egyptian Islamist terrorist organization founded by the Muslim Brotherhood is re-establishing itself amid the current political upheaval in Cairo & threatening the very people who toppled the government.

Both Egyptian and Israeli security officials have said that the group, Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, has been reconstituted at the direction of the Muslim Brotherhood.

As for looking after the tourist industry, I would point out that this is the same Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya that has been responsible for killing dozens of innocent tourist visiting Egypt over the past 20 years & while the Brotherhood is still claiming it has abandoned violence to push for a peaceful takeover of Egypt, the group’s new spiritual leader, Muhammad Badi, recently has recently called for violent jihad, including war against the U.S A.

So I will reserve my judgement for a little while longer.

Dezi
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Cheap shot. I talk to lots of people I would never regard as friends and I NEVER take one person's word for anything without investigating it further. As for Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya and the Musilim Brotherhood, it is my understanding that the two groups split in the 1970s when the MB decided to follow a non-violent path. Indeed, Mubarak, when it suited him, used the Brotherhood as a buffer against al-Islamiyya and other terrorist groups. If you know of any information (other than rumour) that suggests the two groups have got together again then please let me know. I think it unlikely but it would certainly make sense that it is a rumour spread by non-Islamic groups as a frightener. As for Badi's call for Jihad, I refer to the Turkish FJP which did the same before taking office and is now an ally of that very USA. I'm not naiive; I do not believe everything the MB say (in fact, very little of it) but if the MB get elected in Egypt it will not, for the time-being at least, stop me from visiting Egypt. Btw, jihad means struggle; it does not necessarily include violence and the "violent" bit of your post was not in Badi's original call as far as I am aware from any report I have read of it. In other word's, he was doing what all politicians do and appealing to his core support while at the same time giving himself lots of room for manoevre. As I said in my earlier post, what they do in power awaits to be seen - I also reserve judgement on that but, conversely, I don't pre-judge without evidence.
 
John H said:
A megalomaniac Arab leader in Lybia murders thousands of his innocent subjects and the world steps in to "protect" them; a megalomaniac Arab leader in Syria does the same in Hama and the world finds better things to do. Can anybody think of a possible reason why these two cases should be treated differently? Answers to be posted on the door of your nearest petrol station.

Second question - why is the world a place that I'd rather not be associated with these days?
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the answer is simple no 1 ,did you not hear obama and the excuse for a prime minister we have . they said we cannot go into every country that has problems , we only do that if we have an intrest in that country nuff said


the answe to your second question is its the only one we have and to tell you the honest truth . i coundent care less about the upheavels in the arab world or anywharelse for that matter .as long as they dont tell me how to live thats what maddens me .it takes me all my time to look after my own family to bother about lybia or syria or egypt . what they do to themselves is no concern of mine if they want to shoot ,stone or blow each other to death then so be it as long as they leave us alone and our way of life .but unfortunately we have too many over here wanting to tell us how to live , you will never teach them to live as we do they dont want to as they still belive in the tribal way of life . and as for there oil its a shame we cannot use some other form of energy ,then what the hell would they do to live cos you cannt eat the dam stuff our best bet is take what we can as easy as we can and then leave them to there own devices ...
 
Hi, I dont do cheap shots,& that was not meant to be one & I not prejudged anything, I am cautious.

Yes to two factions are back together as the following piece from a respected newspaper shows. One of many sources that have been available for months.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Salafi pact puts Egyptian Christians in great danger – Telegraph Blogs

Jama’a al-Islamiyya is another translation of Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya

As for Turkey being an ally of the USA. I do believe it was another Arabian gentleman who coined the phrase.

my enemys enemy is my friend

Dezi
 
Dezi said:
Hi, I dont do cheap shots,& that was not meant to be one & I not prejudged anything, I am cautious.

Yes to two factions are back together as the following piece from a respected newspaper shows. One of many sources that have been available for months.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Salafi pact puts Egyptian Christians in great danger – Telegraph Blogs

Jama’a al-Islamiyya is another translation of Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya

As for Turkey being an ally of the USA. I do believe it was another Arabian gentleman who coined the phrase.

my enemys enemy is my friend

Dezi
Click to expand...

My reading of that newspaper article is different to yours as follows:

1. It does not say that the two groups are back together; it says that a spokesman from one faction of the Muslim Brotherhood (there are many) has announced an electoral pact with Jama'a al-Islamiyya - ie they will not stand against each other and form a united group when elected. This is not unusual throughout the world. Look at the unsavoury partners that the Israeli government depends on for its majority. Look at our own government (yes, I know that neither party is guilty of murder) and Northern Ireland (where the Deputy First Minister has undoubtedly been responsible for murders but who has now renounced violence - just as the Muslim Brotherhood did in the 1970s and Jama'a al-Islmiyya have done since). I'm not saying I trust any of them as far as I could throw them but it doesn't help to say they are liars before they are shown to be liars. Experience has shown that long-established terrorist groups have to be negotiated with in the end if there is to be any chance of success - from Northern Ireland to almost anywhere in Africa. Talking to them ultimately may not work (it probably doesn't more times than it does) but not talking to them is guaranteed not to bring a peaceful result.

2. My other reason for treating the Telegraph article with caution is that it gives the distinct impression that violent attacks on Copts has started to happen since the overthrow of Mubarak and is therefore a sign of things to come. I have been in Egypt on two pre-revolution ocassions when many hundreds of Copts were murdered by Islamic fanatics (once on Christmas Day). It happened under the previous administration and was officially condemned by the Brotherhood (as have the attacks since January). Again, I don't necessarily believe them but I don't see anything is to be gained by stirring up anti-Brotherhood feelings in the west.

And as for "my enemy's enemy is my friend" - well, yes. The point is that the current rulers of Turkey declared Jihad on the USA before they were elected and now they are, for whatever reason, allies. Pragmatism generally rules at the end of the day - unless you are dealing with complete nutters such as the Taliban and nobody has seriously compared the Brotherhood to the Taliban. I look forward to returning peacefully to Egypt many times after the elections.
 
I think we leave leave it at that John. Angels - heads & needles come to mind.

Dezi
 
mandrake said:
the answer is simple no 1 ,did you not hear obama and the excuse for a prime minister we have . they said we cannot go into every country that has problems , we only do that if we have an intrest in that country nuff said


the answe to your second question is its the only one we have and to tell you the honest truth . i coundent care less about the upheavels in the arab world or anywharelse for that matter .as long as they dont tell me how to live thats what maddens me .it takes me all my time to look after my own family to bother about lybia or syria or egypt . what they do to themselves is no concern of mine if they want to shoot ,stone or blow each other to death then so be it as long as they leave us alone and our way of life .but unfortunately we have too many over here wanting to tell us how to live , you will never teach them to live as we do they dont want to as they still belive in the tribal way of life . and as for there oil its a shame we cannot use some other form of energy ,then what the hell would they do to live cos you cannt eat the dam stuff our best bet is take what we can as easy as we can and then leave them to there own devices ...
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I take your point - and I know the thread has developed into one discussing the relative merits of various potential Egyptian governments - but the implied criticism in my original post was of the double standards of our glorious government (and its predecessor) as well as those of our allies. As I said in a subsequent post, I am not naiive - I know the way things work but that doesn't mean I have to like it. Not much of a lesson to teach our children is it?
 
***** said:
Me thinks you Guys have too much time on your hands. :lol-049:
Me also thinks you need to get out and enjoy yourselves a little more:cool1:
Too much thinking me thinks;)
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I had my enjoyment for the week - going to Trent Bridge and seeing England's superb performance to win the Test Match. I'm not allowed to enjoy myself too much or Jenny complains - so this thread is my penance! :rockroll:
 
We plan to spend the autumn touring around the south-west (after the crowds have gone!) and then we are back in Derbyshire for Christmas with the grandchildren. Then we will be putting the van in storage for three months while we go off back-packing around sout-east Asia to escape the worst of the British winter. Back on the road in spring and will almost certainly end up in southern Spain for the following winter. Keep on the move, I say - then they can't catch up with you!
 
John H said:
We plan to spend the autumn touring around the south-west (after the crowds have gone!) and then we are back in Derbyshire for Christmas with the grandchildren. Then we will be putting the van in storage for three months while we go off back-packing around sout-east Asia to escape the worst of the British winter. Back on the road in spring and will almost certainly end up in southern Spain for the following winter. Keep on the move, I say - then they can't catch up with you!
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sounds as if you have the imediate future well sorted , all i can say is have fun and stay safe. you lucky people
 
Thanks, ***** and Mandrake, we'll try to keep out of trouble - so I can keep coming on here to stir it up!!!
 
look forward to hearing of your travels .and when you come back .as you say for a liitle stir. as the old saying goes ,whats the point in finding a wasps nest and not giving it a quick poke ,it makes for a more intresting life .
 
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